Of the games where FSU isn’t favored on the early lines against ranked or nearly ranked opponents, I think this is the one they have the best chance to steal. Still, I don’t expect them to pull it off Monday evening.
I think SMU has the better quarterback and the better offensive line, which presents a difficult challenge for a Florida State defense that didn’t generate much havoc in its opener and played soft in coverage. The Seminoles will need to bother Kevin Jennings, force him to stay in the pocket and deliver throws, and put him in situations where he has to fit the ball into tight windows with defenders around him. He can be turnover-prone at times, and FSU will need that to be the case if it is going to pull off the upset.
On the flip side, the toughest part of SMU’s team for me to project is its defensive line. There has been a ton of change within that group. Traditionally, under head coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs have been effective at mucking things up at the line of scrimmage, creating havoc and generating negative plays. FSU’s offensive line and its additional blocking at the line of scrimmage were obviously concerns last week. If SMU is similar to what it has been in recent years — disruptive at the line of scrimmage, capable of creating havoc in the passing game and strong against the run — that could put FSU in an unfavorable situation.
Regardless of how SMU’s defensive line performs, I think FSU quarterback Ashton Daniels has to be an active runner in this game and create some backyard-football situations on broken plays. FSU can find favorable one-on-one matchups down the field in the passing game if it can establish any kind of offensive balance.
FSU must win the turnover battle, stay ahead of the chains, control the ball and the clock, and play clean on special teams to pull off the upset.
Close, but no cigar Monday evening.
Prediction: SMU 31, Florida State 24
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